Open Market Snapshot - 25 June 2018

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> Market Snapshot: 25 June 2018

Currency: Sterling v Euro

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Economics

  • President Trump continues to escalate a trade war with China; this may prohibit Chinese investment in certain US industries. The Shanghai composite index is off 8% since the start of June.
  • A report from the Centre for European Reform has found that the UK economy is already 2.1% weaker than it would have been if the country voted to stay in the European Union two years ago.
  • There are fears of failure at the June EU summit Summit (28 and 29 June). Britain must propose a solution to the Northern Ireland border situation.

Brent Crude Daily

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Oil

  • Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday as markets digested OPEC's decision to increase output by 1 million barrels per day (last Friday).
  • The oil market had initially bounced after OPEC's agreement, over concerns that the supply increase would be insufficient, but Saturday’s OPEC press conference calmed markets somewhat.
  • Concerns persist over the impact of sanctions on Iranian production and plummeting production levels in Venezuela due to its crumbling economy
  • Chart analysis: There are currently no buy signals for Brent crude. A breach lower than $72 would signal further downside.

UK Gas (Winter '18) - [indicative of the Power Market]

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Gas & Power

  • At the start of the week, the UK gas system is balanced (supply equals demand). Langeled pipeline flows from Norway are weak (15 mcm) and gas exports to Belgium will resume on Thursday when interconnector maintenance ends.
  • European gas storage levels are now just 5% below last year’s levels after an unprecedented injection so far this summer.
  • There is currently no visibility on forward LNG cargos arriving into the UK. The baseload South Hook facility is 45% full.
  • Chart analysis of the benchmark seasonal gas contracts is currently moderately bearish.
  • Power prices are broadly following gas pricing.

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