Open Market Snapshot - 18 June 2018

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> Market Snapshot: 18 June 2018

Currency: Sterling v Euro

open-energy-market-snapshot-currency-20180618

Economics

  • A US-China trade war has broken out after President Trump applied $50 billion in tariffs to Chinese goods. China has threatened to retaliate. This trade war is set against the backdrop of increasing military tensions in the South China Sea.
  • Angela Merkel’s position as the German chancellor is under increasing pressure due to a rift with coalition partners over immigration. Uncertainty in the EU’s largest economy could weigh on the euro.
  • Fears of June EU summit failure. Britain must propose solution to Northern Ireland border situation. Summit on 28th and 29th of June.

Brent Crude Daily

open-energy-market-snapshot-brent-20180618

Oil

  • The US-China trade war weighed heavily on oil pricing last Friday.
  • OPEC meets this Friday (22 June) with an expectation that the cartel will increase production. US oil production is already at record levels.
  • Recent reports suggest Venezuelan oil production is falling at 10% per quarter, potentially offsetting some of the OPEC production increases.
  • Chart analysis: Despite an early-week bounce, there is no rationale for continued upside in the near-term.

UK Gas (Winter '18) - [indicative of the Power Market]

open-energy-market-snapshot-winter-18-20180618

Gas & Power

  • In the near-term UK gas demand remains weak. Maintenance on the interconnector means the UK cannot currently export gas to Belgium and the UK gas system is well supplied at the start of the week.
  • European gas storage levels remain 6% below last year’s levels as Russian gas flows to Europe continue at unprecedented levels.
  • There is no visibility on future LNG cargos into the UK, against a backdrop of very weak LNG flows so far this Summer.
  • Chart analysis suggests a rationale for some very near-term price support. The longer term picture remains negative.
  • Power prices are broadly following gas pricing.

telca-2018-best-energy-traders-open-energy-market

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