Open Market Snapshot - 21 May 2018

Open Market Snapshot

The Open Market Snapshot is the weekly update that brings commercial energy buyers to up-to-speed with the UK markets in a minute. It's just part of the Market Intelligence we publish every week, including our in-depth Open Market Report and twice-daily notifications in our Open platform.

Open Market Intelligence comes straight from our Performance Traders - it's the same insight that backs our Open Performance Fund and helps our customers locate and secure the best energy contracts, no matter their buying type.

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> Market Snapshot: 21 May 2018

Currency: Sterling vs Euro

open-energy-market-snapshot-currency-20180521

Economics

  • The US-China trade war is “on Hold” as the two sides work on a trade agreement – stock markets have risen on the news
  • The US dollar index continues to strengthen as the US economy recovers and the Federal Reserve looks likely to increase interest rates further. The dollar and dollar-denominated commodities often have an inverse correlation.
  • Britain looks set to remain in a customs union with the EU beyond 2021 until an alternative is ready and workable.
  • Sterling is trading near the upper end of its nine-month range against the euro. One pound will currently buy 1.14 euros.

Brent Crude Daily

open-energy-market-snapshot-brent-crude-20180521

Oil

  • Russia, China and the European Union are to hold talks about a major revision to the Iran nuclear deal with the intention of incentivising Iran to stick with the deal
  • Maduro has won re-election in Venezuela. The US has said that it will not recognise the result. There has been no major unrest threatening oil supplies so far.
  • Chart analysis suggests the potential for $80 to act as resistance (ceiling) to higher oil prices in the near-term.

UK Gas (Winter '18) - [indicative of the Power Market]

open-energy-market-snapshot-uk-gas-20180521

Gas & Power

  • Large scale planned Norwegian maintenance at the end of this week will impact the important Easington terminal and Kollsnes processing plant. Strong gas exports from the UK to Belgium through the interconnector are continuing.
  • Low European gas storage levels continue to set the market backdrop. There is also a lack of visibility on forward Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargos. The South Hook LNG terminal is looking for alternative suppliers to Qatar.
  • Chart analysis suggests that the benchmark Winter’18 gas contract looks overstretched to the upside.
  • There is potential for pricing to find resistance (ceiling) at current levels. However, there are no clear sell signals for the moment
  • Power prices are broadly following gas.

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