Open Market Snapshot - 14 May 2018

Open Market Snapshot

The Open Market Snapshot is the weekly update that brings commercial energy buyers to up-to-speed with the UK markets in a minute. It's just part of the Market Intelligence we publish every week, including our in-depth Open Market Report and twice-daily notifications in our Open platform.

Open Market Intelligence comes straight from our Performance Traders - it's the same insight that backs our Open Performance Fund and helps our customers locate and secure the best energy contracts, no matter their buying type.

> Market Snapshot: 14 May 2018

Currency: Sterling vs Euro

open-energy-market-snapshot-currency-20180514

Economics

  • The US has threatened EU firms with sanctions should they deal with Iran; this raises renewed possibility of international trade wars.
  • After two months of negotiation, the Eurosceptic 5-star party and the anti-immigrant League party look set to form the next Italian government; this is potentially negative for the euro.
  • Sterling is trading against the euro at 1.1342 - in the middle of its range for the last nine months.

Brent Crude Daily

open-energy-market-snapshot-brent-20180514

Oil

  • Iran and the European signatories to the P5+1 nuclear deal are working to preserve the agreement despite US withdrawal, and the threat of sanctions.
  • Preliminary Iraqi parliamentary results suggest the hardline Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr may become Iraq’s next prime minister. This would move Iraq (OPEC’s second largest producer) away from US influence and closer to Iran.
  • Chart analysis does not currently identify any sell signals for Brent.

UK Gas (Winter '18) - [indicative of the Power Market]

open-energy-market-snapshot-gas-20180514

Gas & Power

  • There are currently three unplanned field outages in Norway. Gas exports to Belgium have increased by 30% since last week.
  • Norwegian gas imports through the Langeled pipeline remain above their typical summer profile. They were at 50 mcm on Monday morning.
  • Two LNG cargos are expected into the UK this week. The UK gas system has started the week slightly oversupplied (6 mcm).
  • European gas storage levels remain moderately below all time lows for this time of year, but levels are increasing at an unprecedented rate.
  • From a chart analysis perspective: the magnitude of recent price gains in the benchmark Winter’18 gas contract have been unprecedented. The market looks very overstretched to the upside, but there are no clear sell signals as yet.
  • Power prices are broadly following gas pricing.

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